Extrapolation definition
/What is Extrapolation?
Extrapolation is the process of extending a trend into the future, or of applying the results of a sample to an entire population. Extrapolation has a relatively high risk of generating incorrect results, since it assumes that the current data points are recurring, which may not be the case. The risk of generating incorrect results through extrapolation is reduced in cases where there are no current indicators of changes in the current data set.
Examples of Extrapolation
Here are several examples of the manner in which the extrapolation concept can be used:
Sales forecasting. A retail company notices that sales have increased by 5% every quarter for the past two years. Using extrapolation, they predict that sales will continue to grow at the same rate in the upcoming quarters. This helps them plan inventory and staffing needs.
Population growth projections. A city’s population has been growing by 2,000 people per year for the last decade. Urban planners use extrapolation to estimate the population 10 years from now, guiding decisions on housing, transportation, and infrastructure development.
Climate change modeling. Scientists observe a steady rise in global temperatures over several decades. By extrapolating this trend, they estimate future temperature increases and assess potential environmental impacts, like rising sea levels or more extreme weather events.
Budget planning for a school. A school sees a consistent 3% annual increase in student enrollment. Administrators extrapolate this trend to predict future enrollment and determine when they’ll need more classrooms, teachers, and supplies.
Health research surveys. Researchers survey 1,000 people about their dietary habits and health outcomes. They use extrapolation to apply the findings to the broader population, assuming the sample is representative, to inform public health recommendations.