Circular Sales (#395)
/What is a Circular Sale?
A circular sale occurs when two parties buy from and sell to each other in transactions that lack a clear economic substance. The arrangement is designed to create the appearance of revenue, usually to boost the stock prices of the companies. This is considered accounting fraud.
One of the largest examples of this was Qwest Communications, based in Denver, Colorado, back in 2001. In one case, Qwest entered into a swap arrangement with Global Crossing, where each party swapped fiber optic network capacity, and both recorded revenue from the swap. The SEC forced Qwest to reverse that transaction, which eliminated $63 million of revenue. And that was not the only swap arrangement that Qwest entered into. In total, Qwest had to reverse $950 million of revenue from these swap deals.
So the issue here is that sales are essentially being manufactured without any concrete underlying business activity.
AI Industry Funding Arrangements
Now, let’s move forward to today, and look at what’s going on in the AI industry. Nvidia has stated that it’s going to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which OpenAI will then use to fund a data center build out, which in turn uses massive amounts of Nvidia chips. In addition, there’s the initial $5 billion Amazon investment in Anthropic, which could go up to $20 billion. In the Anthropic situation, it plans to spend the money on compute time from Amazon Web Services, or AWS. I’ll focus on the Amazon deal.
Circular Sales Analysis
At first, this looks circular. Amazon puts money into Anthropic, and Anthropic commits to spend money on AWS. AWS may then report revenue from those cloud services. So the question is whether Amazon is, in effect, funding its own future sales.
That’s the right question, but the answer is not automatically yes. There’s an important distinction between a circular sale and a strategic customer-supplier relationship. Amazon is not buying cloud services from Anthropic and then having Anthropic buy the same services back. Instead, Amazon is investing in a company that needs a lot of computing capacity, while Anthropic is committing to buy capacity from one of the world’s major cloud infrastructure providers.
So the accounting issue is more subtle. It’s not, “Are the same goods being passed around in a circle?” That’s not going on. Instead, the issue is, “Are the investment and purchasing commitments so economically linked that some portion of the reported revenue should be viewed as funded by the vendor rather than earned from an independent customer relationship?”
There are a couple of indicators to examine.
The first is commercial substance. Does Anthropic have an independent business reason to buy AWS compute time? The answer appears to be yes. AI models require vast amounts of computing power. Anthropic trains and serves Claude models, and it needs infrastructure to do so. That supports the argument that the purchases are operationally necessary, rather than merely a device for moving money back to Amazon.
The second indicator is pricing. Are Anthropic’s AWS purchases priced at market rates, or are they priced in a way that embeds the investment return into the service arrangement? If AWS charges normal commercial prices, then that supports revenue recognition. If the pricing is inflated because Amazon first supplied capital, then the arrangement begins to look more like a financing loop. There’s not enough publicly-available information to determine this.
The third indicator is enforceability. Is Anthropic obligated to buy a fixed amount of AWS services regardless of need? If so, the arrangement wouldn’t automatically be circular, but it would require more analysis. You would need to understand the rights and obligations of both parties.
The fourth indicator is collectability. If a customer can pay for services only because the vendor invested in the customer, then collectability becomes more complex. This does not necessarily eliminate the possibility of revenue recognition, but it raises the question of whether Amazon is effectively financing Anthropic’s purchases. In that case, the accounting analysis may need to separate revenue from any financing effects.
The fifth indicator is whether there are side agreements. Circular sales frequently depend on informal commitments that are not obvious from the main contract. For the Amazon-Anthropic relationship, the public announcements describe a strategic collaboration and an investment. They do not provide the full contracts. Without those contracts, no outside observer can make a definitive accounting conclusion.
So, does the circular sales concept apply? Well. It’s reasonable to ask whether Amazon is investing in Anthropic partly to create future AWS revenue. But does that mean the arrangement is a circular sale in the classic fraudulent sense? Based only on public information, no. The arrangement has several features that differ from a circular sale. Anthropic appears to need the compute time. AWS appears to be capable of providing a real service. The service is not being resold back to Amazon as the same item. And there is an identifiable business purpose: Amazon wants a major AI model developer using AWS, while Anthropic wants guaranteed large-scale computing capacity.
The key takeaway is to avoid treating the deal as either completely ordinary or automatically abusive. It sits in a gray zone that requires a detailed contract-level analysis. The questions should include: Are the AWS service fees at the market price? Are there any minimum purchase commitments? Are future Amazon investments contingent on Anthropic’s AWS spending? And does Amazon recognize revenue only as it satisfies real performance obligations?
In short, circular sales are about substance over form. They occur when reciprocal transactions create the appearance of sales without genuine outside demand. The Amazon-Anthropic arrangement does not appear to be a textbook circular sale. But it absolutely raises the kind of questions that circular-sale analysis is designed to address. When a vendor invests billions in a customer, and that customer commits to spend a huge amount with the vendor, then you certainly should look at the substance behind the revenue.
That is the real lesson. Not every reciprocal arrangement is a circular sale. But every major investment-linked purchasing commitment deserves a hard look before its revenue is treated as ordinary, independent customer demand.